November 23, 2025: The real cost of Russia's invasion of Ukraine
The Ukraine War has been at the top of the news cycle again this week, due to a lot of confusion over whether the US is simply handing in a peace plan that amounts to a wishlist mailed directly from the Kremlin. I have my own opinion about that (just like everyone else) but at the end of the day it doesn't matter; US policy failed the moment Russia invaded Ukraine several years ago and the penalty is the End Of The World. If that seems like hyperbole to you, I assure you it is not.
"It's the end of the world as we know it (and I feel fine)"
The Cold War ended a generation ago, and the forgetting runs deep. The internet grew up well after the Soviet Union died, which means the history of that era is buried under the entirety of modern media. Both Millenials and Zoomers have no memory of the fear of nuclear war or the giant chessmatch played out between the two superpowers, a game in which all other countries were mere pawns. That means the modern news media is entirely lacking in perspective and suffers from a profound state of amnesia. All the news reports on is the he said/she said of the press releases coming out of the White House, Moscow and Kiev, and none of that amounts to anything more than propaganda. The root causes of this conflict lie deeper than the memory hole can reach and no one has the expertise or the patience to do more than scratch the surface, even though the backdrop is relatively simple.
The end of the world took place on July 16th, 1945 on the Alamogordo Bombing Range in new Mexico. It took less than a month for everyone to find out that the world ended when the news of the second nuclear detonation, this time in Hiroshima, Japan, happened on August 6th, 1945. The arrival of the New World formally ended not only World War 2, but the system of major power confrontations that defined history up to this point. The Soviet Union detonated their first nuclear weapon in 1949 making the New World a very fragile thing indeed. Almost as soon as the old world ended, the new world threatened to burn the face of the planet.
Stuffing the genie back into the bottle
Over the rest of the 20th century collecting nuclear bombs became as popular as collecting Beanie Babies or Pokemon Cards. Eager to join the club, Britain, France, China, Israel, India and Pakistan developed their own nuclear arsenals. It didn't take long for people to realize that the risks were growing exponentially, especially in light of several false alarms over potential nuclear attacks where all-out war was barely avoided. By the peak of the nuclear shopping spree in the 1960s, the countries who already had nuclear weapons were eager to stop others from getting them, and those who couldn't afford them were more than happy to sign up for the new concept of Nuclear Non-Proliferation. Part of it was about maintaining monopolies on nuclear power, but part of it was also an extension of the logical conclusion that more countries with nuclear weapons made nuclear war more likely, not less. Nuclear non-proliferation was largely successful and the only country to develop nuclear weapons in the 21st century was North Korea, widely considered to be something like the dirty kid at school who huffs glue and runs around with scissors.
From the perspective of this global push to stuff the nuclear genie back into the bottle then, the collapse of the Soviet Union was a nightmare in slow motion. Not only did the world's largest nuclear stockpile suddenly fall under the control of one failed state; it fell under control under several failed states. Overnight, the newly minted nations of Ukraine, Belarus and Kazakhstan owned nuclear weapons. These nations were both completely unorganized and essentially bankrupt. A television news crew from the West ran a story on how they were able to walk right into a nuclear storage facility in one of the former Soviet states. It didn't take a giant leap of imagination to understand that it was now possible for smaller states or terrorist organizations to go shopping for The Bomb in these circumstances.
All roads lead to Budapest
Ukraine alone inherited so many bombs that it found itself sitting on the world's third largest nuclear stockpile. While they struggled to maintain and secure this arsenal, and some elements within the country were eager to get rid of them, other more forward-thinking elements understood that nuclear weapons guaranteed security. Their argument was that without The Bomb, Ukraine would quickly become a target for Russian takeover once Moscow was back up on its feet.
The rest of the world saw the shaky Ukrainian government as too big of a risk and Russia was not happy with a nuclear-armed Ukraine. With the Soviet Union out of the picture and Russia wobbling on stilts itself, the United States had to step in to make guarantees. "America, World Police" may be considered a joke at best or a force of evil at worst, but people forget that it was the only capable actor left in the chaotic wake of collapse of the Soviet Union. A deal was made under the title of The Budapest Memorandum, whereby Ukraine would surrender its nuclear arsenal to Russia, in exchange for Russian promises not to invade or interfere with Ukraine. The role of the US under the Budapest Memorandum was to act as the guarantor of Ukrainian security in relation to Russia.
The end of Nuclear Non-Proliferation
With this healthy dose of history vitamins it should be clear now why US policy has failed and why that means the end of the world is coming again, this time for good. The US did not take necessary steps to reinforce Ukraine when the signs of Russian invasion became clear. The Ukraine War has devolved into "just" another domestic political football in the American media and the US is pushing Ukraine to make concessions that will end in major strategic territories being handed over to Russia. What is almost never discussed, however, is how this will destroy Nuclear Non-Proliferation for good. If major powers like the US are unable or unwilling to take the difficult steps to protect non-nuclear countries, there is every reason for those countries to go nuclear. Countries like Iran and North Korea start to look rational for pursuing their own nuclear arsenals, and places like Saudia Arabia and Japan will be forced to consider the option. We are back on the path to destruction, and although it probably won't be tomorrow, it is just as probable that it can never be stopped again.
November 11, 2025: Why fight Venezuela?
My professors taught me that the opening stages of war were usually marked with confusion, propaganda and misdirection. The prelude to the War in Iraq and Russia's buildup on the Ukrainian border highlight this academic fact; as time goes on the art of masking intentions only grows.
Both Mainstream and Social media are missing the point when it comes to Venezuela. People are too busy jumping on the stories that America and its adversaries are feeding them. I can cut through the smoke and mirrors and show you the most likely reasons a conflict is simmering.
The two primary factors are foreign interference and oil, just like people are saying. Unfortunately most of these people have everything backwards.....
It's always about Oil, just not the way you think
Venezuela is an OPEC member with the largest proven oil reserves in the world. Unfortunately for them, most of those reserves are classified as "heavy and sour," which means it is sludgy and shot through with sulfur. Refining heavy sour crude oil is complicated and expensive. Despite having one of the largest single refineries in the world, Venezuela struggles to refine its own products because they cannot afford to maintain their equipment; over the past 20 years, their main refinery has dropped from 80% capacity down to 20%. Sanctions don't help.
And while the refineries in Venezuela rust into decrepitude, the country has faced an even bigger bodyblow by way of losing one of its major assets: Citgo.
Yes, THAT Citgo.
Fun fact: in 1976 Venezuela nationalized their entire oil industry, kicking Exxon, Gulf and Mobil out of the country, forcing them to abandon $5 billion in assets. Then Venezuela bought 50% of Citgo in 1986, eventually taking over 100% by 1990. After kicking America out of the Venezuelan oil business, Venezuela took over about 10% of the American oil business.
Hugo Chavez won the Venezuelan presidency in 1998 and remained in office until he died in 2013. Chavez made a hard pivot towards Russia, taking out loans from Moscow and buying heavy Russian weaponry. Eventually, Venezuela fell behind on their payments and Chavez's successor Nicolas Maduro, had to cough up some dough. His penance? In 2016 Venezuela offered 49.9% of Citgo to to Rosneft, the oil company owned by Russia and run by Putin ally Igor Sechin. Obviously, America was appalled by the idea of Russia controlling a substantial amount of key infrastructure within the United States and begain to apply pressure
The next year (2017) Venezuela arrested five American executives working for Citgo. They were never tried in court but were held until 2022.
Things deteriorated to the point where America sanctioned Venezuela and cut it off from Citgo. That didn't stop Venezuela from issuing bonds collateralized against Citgo assets....bonds that they defaulted on. Lawsuits over those bonds and assets have been coming to a head over the past year, and the bondholders will get to take over Citgo if (when) they win.
TLDR: Venezuela relies on oil to avoid bankruptcy, but it has made a lot of bold and reckless moves that have essentially ransomed off its oil assets. The bills are due and they owe money everywhere, including Russia
Enter Guyana
In 2015, right around the time things were really going south for the Venezuelan oil industry, ExxonMobil signed an agreement with Guyana to explore for offshore oil. Guyana shares its Western border with Venezuela. ExxonMobil struck oil, and Guyana struck gold in the process. Oil has quickly made the little nation rich and it now accounts for around 75% of their total exports. A relative newcomer to the bigtime, Guyana is NOT an OPEC state and it can keep right on pumping when Venezuela may have to coordinate production cuts with its OPEC friends.
Venezuela responded to Guyana's good news by promptly passing a law claiming 2/3s of the new Guyana oil fields. While Venezuela has temporarily agreed not to resolve the conflict with armed force, Venezuela has a major military advantage over its smaller neighbor, and is backed by Russia.
The Roosevelt Corollary
If you have read this far you have certainly noticed a theme here; Venezuela is a client state of Russia.
To put this in perspective, two major points need to be considered. The first is the Cuban Missile Crisis. The other is the Monroe Doctrine. The Cuban Missile Crisis was an event that almost ended in nuclear war. In response to NATO allies in Europe hosting American nuclear missiles, the Soviet Union began building nuclear missile sites in Cuba, close enough to allow the Soviet Union to strike America in mere minutes. America blockaded Soviet ships off the coast of Cuba in order to stop the building, and nuclear war was barely avoided. America agreed to pull back their missiles from the Soviet Union's doorstep in exchange for Russia pulling their missile plans from Cuba. This was the peak of the Cold War, and while it stayed hot the two countries kept a more respectable distance going forward.
The Monroe Doctrine was a de facto policy of the United States that forbade European countries from interfering in North and South America. In 1904, President Teddy Roosevelt tacked on his own addition to the Monroe Doctrine called the Roosevelt Corollary. The reason for his addition?
Venezuela!
In 1902-1903, the Venezuelan president refused to pay debts to Venezuela's European creditors. As a result, Britain, Germany and Italy blockaded Venezuela....in contradiction to the Monroe Doctrine. Roosevelt responded by stating that America would essentially take on the role of enforcing fair business practices in North and South America. In order to keep foreign powers out of America's hemisphere, America would take on the role of World Police.
While the Monroe Doctrine and the Roosevelt Corollary have been disavowed by later administrations, and America faces bad sentiment from Latin Americans for interventionism, the threat to America stemming from Central and South American involvement with foreign adversaries remains real. Russia has been sending nuclear bombers to Venezuela periodically as a show of force since 2008, with the most recent trip taking place in 2018. Russian private military contractors are operating in Venezuela, providing security to the elite and helping to suppress opposition political parties. Billions of dollars in Russian arms sales have been made, including tanks, fighter jets and anti-aircraft defenses. Over the past decade Russia has signed cooperation pacts with not only Venezuela, but Cuba and Nicaragua as well.
In essence, Russia has been working its way back to the Cuban Missile Crisis, and Venezuela is both a tinderbox and the crown of Russia's ambitions in the region. Russia has become Venezuela's landlord and has already attempted to purchase American critical infrastructure through the shell of Venezuela's crippling debts.
The question shouldn't be "why fight Venezuela?" The real question is clearly "when?"